Deeper Dive on School Enrollment — Newton for Everyone

Deeper dive on school enrollment – A look at the numbers

Each year, NPS makes projections for the upcoming 5 years.
There is a long timeline between when new developments are approved and when they are ready for people to move in. Since projections are made each year and factor in new development, the school district has plenty of time to plan for incoming students.

School enrollment is declining as the number of children in Newton declines. As the Baby Boomer generation ages so does the population of Newton.
Many older adults wish to find smaller, more accessible housing, but finding few options in Newton, remain in their homes.
This locks up real estate making it harder for families with children to move in.
In addition, housing costs are out of reach for an increasing number of families who would like to bring students into our schools.

As soon as projects are approved by special permit or comprehensive permit, NPS starts to incorporate new students from those developments into the enrollment projections.
Projections for new developments are based on an analysis of the number of students from current apartment buildings in Newton and national standards for students per unit.
The projections are developed by looking at not only the number of units in a building but also the type of units - studio, 1 BR, 2 BR or 3 BR. The number of new students on average varies based on the number of bedrooms in an apartment.
Projections estimate when students from a development would start to enroll in the Newton schools and then phase in the number of students over the course of five years as the apartments become fully occupied.
These new students that are included in the projections would be spread out over 11 of the city’s elementary schools, all 4 middle schools and both high schools.
Normally new student projections are allocated 50% to elementary and 25% each for middle and high schools. However, if a development is less than ½ mile from an elementary school, 65% of the new students are allocated to the elementary school.

The updated numbers show fewer students by 2028-29 as the start date for construction on some projects has been delayed; for others, construction is taking longer than expected: and others are in limbo as to whether they will get built at all.
There are more students in the updated projections as both 528 Boylston St. and 78 Crafts St have been approved this year. These increases in the projections don’t show up until 2029.

Among our neighbors here in the Boston metro area, only Watertown has seen growth in the number of students over the last five years. Flush with cash from new residential and commercial development, the city is constructing new schools, including a new high school, without the need for overrides.
Meanwhile, more expensive communities that have dragged their feet on new housing like Wellesley, Brookline, and Belmont have seen enrollments decline significantly.

This chart compares the projections to the actual number of students that enrolled.
Until the pandemic disrupted everything, the projections were relatively accurate. In most years projections were less than 1% to 2% off. Even 5 years out they were only 2% to 4% off.
The years when the projections were affected by the pandemic are highlighted in gray. More families started sending their children to private school or home-schooled their children, so the actual enrollments were lower.
As of 2022, the projections have become more accurate as future enrollment is becoming more predictable again. (Notice the low percentage difference between projected and actual starting in 2022.)